Has Central Asia’s demographic boom helped its economy?

Population growth and a demographic boom in Central Asia have strengthened the region’s economic potential, particularly in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, says Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA)’s report «Between East and West,» focusing on the Central Asia Five (CA-5): Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan.

 

“Population approaching 80 million”

The report highlights steady population growth, increased life expectancy, and a growing workforce contributing to economic development.

Central Asia’s population is nearing 80 million, comparable to Turkey or Iran (each with 85 million).

The region’s population is youthful, with a median age of 23 in Tajikistan and 32 in Kazakhstan, growing at 1.5–2% annually.

 

Improved quality of life

The region’s population has grown by 59% since 1991, from 51 million to 81 million in 2024.

Life expectancy reportedly increased from 55 years in Tajikistan to 69 years in Kyrgyzstan in 1992 to 68 years in Turkmenistan to 72 years in Kyrgyzstan in 2021.  

This demographic shift, coupled with a growing labor market, makes Central Asia an increasingly attractive market. However, the report also highlights challenges, including climate issues, limited export diversification, and reliance on external economic factors.

ACRA is a rating agency based in Moscow.  It was established in 2015, with Yekaterina Trofimova as its CEO.  Due to the withdrawal of US-based rating agencies because of Russian legislative changes and sanctions against Russia, ACRA was expected by analysts to become Russia’s main ratings issuer.  ACRA is engaged in research and forecasting and has developed ACRA Financial Stress Index (ACRA FSI), which is used to evaluate the possibility of financial crisis in Russia and Kazakhstan.